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Journal Poll: Keller's approval rating slips as he seeks third term as mayor

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Tim Keller

While Tim Keller has a solid lead in his bid to win reelection as sa国际传媒官网网页入口鈥檚 mayor, less than half of city voters approve of the job he鈥檚 done over the last seven-plus years, a new Journal Poll found.

Keller approval

A total of 47% of voters surveyed expressed disapproval of Keller鈥檚 job performance, while 42% approved of the way he has handled being mayor. The remaining voters were unsure or declined to say.

The poll results continue a steady decline in Keller鈥檚 approval rating.

His approval rating was at 50% in October 2021, just before he won reelection to a second term as mayor. It was even higher earlier in his first term, as 61% of sa国际传媒官网网页入口 voters approved of Keller鈥檚 job performance in September 2018.

Keller support

Despite the declining approval rating, Keller still holds a sizable lead in his bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term as mayor. A recent Journal Poll found 29% of proven and likely voters said they planned to vote for Keller in this year鈥檚 election, with the next closest candidate in the seven-way race receiving 16% voter support.

Brian Sanderoff, the president of sa国际传媒官网网页入口-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll, said it鈥檚 difficult for elected officials to maintain high approval ratings after multiple years on the job.

But Sanderoff also pointed out that 46% of the sa国际传媒官网网页入口 voters who disapproved of Keller鈥檚 job performance said they were undecided about who they planned to vote for in the Nov. 4 local election.

鈥淭hey disapprove of him, but they haven鈥檛 chosen a candidate,鈥 he said.

Economy

Of those who approved of Keller鈥檚 job performance, in contrast, most said they planned to vote for the mayor. Only 22% of those voters were undecided.

Not surprisingly, Keller鈥檚 approval rating is higher among registered Democratic voters than Republicans. A total of 59% of Democrats surveyed said they supported Keller鈥檚 job performance, compared to just 14% of Republicans.

Independent voters, or those who declined to affiliate with a political party, were nearly evenly split in their views.

Among self-reported liberal voters, 70% approved of the mayor鈥檚 job performance compared to only 15% of conservatives, while political moderates were evenly split.

sa国际传媒官网网页入口鈥檚 municipal elections are technically nonpartisan, but Keller was elected as state auditor as a Democrat in 2014, after previously representing an sa国际传媒官网网页入口-based state Senate seat for six years.

As mayor of New Mexico鈥檚 largest city since late 2017, Keller has faced scrutiny and criticism over his handling of issues related to crime and homelessness. While the mayor鈥檚 administration has increased spending on shelters and affordable housing, its enforcement of public camping laws against the homeless has sparked a legal battle.

Keller has also doubled down on protecting immigrants鈥 rights in sa国际传媒官网网页入口, even as President Donald Trump鈥檚 administration has listed the city as among 18 sanctuary jurisdictions nationwide.

The mayor signed an executive order in July that expanded on an existing city resolution barring employees from collaborating with federal immigration officials, except when required to do so by a court order.

Tepid views on city鈥檚 economy

Despite city officials鈥 efforts to revitalize the Downtown area and lure high-tech companies, most sa国际传媒官网网页入口 voters have a lukewarm view of the strength of the city鈥檚 economy.

Half of likely voters surveyed over a week-long period described the strength of sa国际传媒官网网页入口鈥檚 economy as fair, while just 27% described it as good or excellent. Roughly 22% of voters surveyed said the city鈥檚 economy was in poor shape.

The results to this survey question were nearly identical to the Journal Poll conducted four years ago, prior to the city election. For that reason, Sanderoff said the voters鈥 assessment of the strength of the economy has not changed during Keller鈥檚 most recent term.

sa国际传媒官网网页入口鈥檚 unemployment rate was at 5% as of July, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was slightly less than the statewide average of 5.2%.

The city recently landed a big economic investment, when California-based Pacific Fusion announced it had selected sa国际传媒官网网页入口鈥檚 Mesa del Sol to build a $1 billion research and manufacturing campus.

Keller described the announcement as a 鈥渟hot-in-the-arm booster鈥 for the city鈥檚 economy, as some previous high-profile economic development projects in sa国际传媒官网网页入口 ended up fizzling.

Meanwhile, the Journal Poll also found a correlation between sa国际传媒官网网页入口 voters鈥 views of the city economy and their views of the mayor.

Among voters who approved of Keller鈥檚 job performance, 34% rated the strength of the city鈥檚 economy as good and just 17% described it as poor. In contrast, only 19% of the voters who disapproved of Keller鈥檚 performance rated sa国际传媒官网网页入口鈥檚 economy as good while 27% graded it as poor.

Methodology

The Journal Poll is based on a random sample of 514 voters who cast ballots in the 2021 and/or 2023 local government election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2024 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming local government election.

To ensure a representative sample, Research & Polling, Inc. sets quotas for race, gender, and age, and weights by education level and party affiliation, if necessary, based on traditional voting patterns in local government elections.

The poll was conducted Sept. 19 through Sept. 26. The voter sample size of 514 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in sa国际传媒官网网页入口, with multiple callbacks to individuals who did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely voters were used.