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New Mexicans could face a water shortage and increased costs for fruits and vegetables, if the Rio Grande does not receive a lot more precipitation this year.

鈥淭he amount of water in the river is not sufficient to meet irrigation demands while maintaining continuous river connectivity through the Middle Rio Grande Valley to Elephant Butte Reservoir,鈥� said Anne Marken, Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District river operations and telemetry manager, in an email.

MRGCD CEO Jason Casuga said the low snowpack 鈥渋s showing up in the amount of water that鈥檚 making it to the river鈥� and as a result, there鈥檚 a chance that this year could be 鈥渞eally bad.鈥�

About 500 cubic feet per second of water from the Cochiti Dam is currently available for use. This is about half of normal, which is over 1,000 cubic feet, he said.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 how different of a year this is,鈥� Casuga said.

Due to the historically dry and warm winter, the Rio Grande has received 鈥渁bout 30% of the usual amount of water we see in a year,鈥� said Andrew Mangham, National Weather Service of sa国际传媒官网网页入口 hydrologist.

Farther south, the river channel in the San Acacia Reach, near Socorro, dried up for the first time this year, Marken said.

鈥淩iver channel drying in Valencia and Socorro counties happens every year,鈥� she said. 鈥淗owever, this is the first occurrence in recent history of drying in March. In average years, initial river channel drying doesn鈥檛 typically happen until June.

鈥淎s flows continue to decline, the extent of dry river miles is expected to expand. I anticipate the river channel drying will extend into the sa国际传媒官网网页入口 Reach this year. This has only occurred twice in the past 40 years, in 2022 and 2025.鈥�

Amanda Molina, a MRGCD spokesperson, said it is uncertain if any of the new snowpack from a recent storm system will generate a secondary runoff pulse into the river. She said any resulting benefit 鈥渕ay be diminished by upstream storage under federal operations in the Rio Chama system for prior and paramount Pueblo lands, as well as by Colorado diversions that reduce flows crossing the state line, both factors outside MRGCD control.鈥�

Casuga said the situation is 鈥渨orse than we thought it would be鈥� and the district is reaching out to irrigators 鈥渂ecause people are frustrated.鈥�

鈥淭hey鈥檙e used to seeing water right now and they鈥檙e wondering where it is and we want folks to understand there are no other sources of water right now,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here is nothing in storage right now.鈥�

The Fruit Basket ABQ General Manager John Gonzales said farmers told him they have been having a tough time and even had to plant early to make sure they were prepared 鈥渇or the irrigation (or) lack of it.鈥�

The lack of water will limit the amount of products out there and cause prices to go up, he said.

鈥淪ometimes we can eat it as a business, but sometimes we do have to pass it down,鈥� Gonzales said. 鈥淚t just (depends) on how drastic a change it is.鈥�

If it doesn鈥檛 start raining, Casuga said, 鈥淚 expect this year to be one we look back on and compare to and say, 鈥楬ey, at least future years are not like 2026.鈥� Right?鈥�

Gregory R.C. Hasman is a general assignment reporter and the Road Warrior. He can be reached at ghasman@abqjournal.com or 505-823-3820.