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Who could replace Mitch McConnell as he steps down from his role as Senate leader is difficult to predict, said Michael Rocca, associate professor of political science at the University of New Mexico and director of UNM鈥檚 Public Policy Program.

鈥淗e鈥檚 no longer a party leader, but I鈥檓 sure he鈥檒l be a significant player behind the scenes, particularly on issues like the crisis in Ukraine, which sounds like was one of the key forces in his exit,鈥� Rocca said Wednesday. 鈥淭he party is shifting underneath him when it comes to views on foreign policy and trade, particularly because of (former) President (Donald) Trump鈥檚 influence over the party.鈥�

How Senate leadership could impact NM

The change in Senate leadership likely won鈥檛 have a large direct impact on New Mexico, but the competition could indirectly affect the state鈥檚 2024 Senate race, said Corey Sukala, government professor at New Mexico State University.

Sukala thinks Nella Domenici likely is going to be the Republican candidate against Democrat Martin Heinrich, who is running for reelection.

One way for senators to impress the Republican caucus and gain supporters in the Senate is by helping other politicians get elected.

鈥�(Domenici鈥檚) race might wind up getting more attention from other elected Republicans, particularly those in the Senate who might want to vie for that leadership role, than it otherwise might,鈥� Sukala said.

Who will take McConnell鈥檚 place?

Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota would be a logical choice to replace McConnell, Rocca said.

鈥�(Thune) in many ways represents the establishment, sort of the mainstream Republican ideals that Mitch McConnell does. Mitch McConnell stepping down to me is a sign for what鈥檚 to come in the next session of Congress, particularly in the Senate.鈥�

Whether Trump wins or loses in 2024, there has been a big pull toward Trump鈥檚 politics, Rocca said, and it will be fascinating to see how much pull he has over the party.

John Cornyn of Texas and John Barrasso of Wyoming are also senators to keep an eye on. Cornyn could be a compromise between traditional Republicans and pro-Trump factions, Sukala said, while Barrasso has been an outspoken Trump supporter.

The House of Representatives has seen a battle for control between different factions of the Republican Party, leading to the high-profile ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year.

鈥淭he reason we haven鈥檛 necessarily seen that as much on the Senate side is because they鈥檝e had strong leadership in Mitch McConnell,鈥� Rocca said.

Sukala thinks the turmoil in the House is unlikely to translate to the Senate.

鈥淭he relationships that senators have with each other are very different than the way that members of the House tend to relate to each other,鈥� Sukala said. But McConnell did keep party power struggles behind the scenes, he said.

鈥淢cConnell was very pragmatic, and even if he wasn鈥檛 always well-liked, even in his own party, he held things together. And now those battles that were able to be more behind the scenes are now going to be brought to the forefront,鈥� Sukala said.

McConnell鈥檚 Supreme legacy

McConnell played a powerful role in shaping the Supreme Court, Rocca noted.

鈥淭he most important moment in getting the Supreme Court that we have today was when he denied then President Obama in 2016 his nominee to the Supreme Court of even getting a hearing at the Senate after Antonin Scalia had unexpectedly passed away,鈥� Rocca said.

Obama nominated Merrick Garland to replace Scalia, which would have tipped the balance of the court left of center, Rocca said. In an unprecedented move, McConnell denied Garland a vote on the Senate floor or in committee.

鈥淭hat is how we end up with the Supreme Court,鈥� Rocca said. 鈥淪o if you love the Supreme Court, you need to applaud Mitch McConnell. If you don鈥檛 like the Supreme Court and current direction, you need to criticize Mitch McConnell. He is the reason that the Supreme Court is the way it is today.鈥�

McConnell made obstructionism a more acceptable political strategy, Sukala said.

鈥淗e changed the calculus of what winning in politics could mean,鈥� Sukala said. 鈥淚f you give up on the idea of compromising with the other side, and you instead focus on just frustrating the political process as a whole, you can win, even when you鈥檝e lost.鈥�

While that may not be a good mindset for the country, it has helped Republicans accomplish their goals, Sukala said.

Cathy Cook is a news reporter for the sa国际传媒官网网页入口. Reach her via email at ccook@abqjournal.com.