ELECTION 2026
State House primary contests could determine chamber鈥檚 political tilt for next two years
Most contested legislative primary races involve Democrats, who hold political control in House
Published
SANTA FE 鈥� The outcomes of more than a dozen contested New Mexico state House primary races this week are unlikely to significantly shift the 70-member chamber鈥檚 moorings.
But they could impact its political tilt.
Several moderate Democratic ex-lawmakers are seeking to return to the Roundhouse, while at least two incumbent Democrats are facing primary challenges from more progressive opponents.
The outcome of those races could have both political and practical implications, as a group of moderate Democrats have proven to be pivotal in recent years in determining whether bills dealing with crime, guns and climate change win approval or come up short, said longtime New Mexico political observer Brian Sanderoff.
Given that backdrop, a range of environmental groups, labor unions and high-profile attorneys have all given hefty amounts of money in this year鈥檚 primary election cycle to the candidates of their preference.
鈥淎ll of these different special interest groups are very focused on the Democratic primary,鈥� said Sanderoff, who is the president of sa国际传媒官网网页入口-based Research & Polling Inc.
Those facing challenges include Rep. Marian Matthews, D-sa国际传媒官网网页入口, a three-term lawmaker who has drawn criticism from progressives for casting a key vote against a 2023 paid family leave bill.
She鈥檚 facing off against fellow Democrat Abby Foster, an attorney who has received more than $65,000 in campaign donations 鈥� including from several prominent trial lawyers 鈥� in her bid to oust the incumbent.
In the final run-up to Election Day on Tuesday, Foster said Matthews is aligned with the 鈥渨rong interests,鈥� citing the incumbent鈥檚 financial backing from groups including the local International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union that supports Blackstone Infrastructure鈥檚 proposed acquisition of TXNM Energy, the parent company of New Mexico鈥檚 largest public utility, PNM.
鈥淰oters have every reason to know 鈥� and to worry about 鈥� who controls Marian,鈥� Foster said in a statement.
However, Matthews said in an interview she's voted in step with the views of residents in her district, which encompasses a swath of sa国际传媒官网网页入口's Northeast Heights.
"My opponent is a very far-left Democrat," said Matthews, who described herself as taking a "more moderate" approach.
She also defended her campaign contributions, saying they would not dictate her votes on proposed legislation. Among her other donations, the incumbent has also gotten financial support from several House Democrats, including House Speaker Javier Mart铆nez of sa国际传媒官网网页入口.
"I don't sell my vote," Matthews said. "If someone gives me money with the expectation they've bought my vote, I give it back or won't take it (in the future)."
Most incumbents unopposed
With all 70 state House seats up for election this year, only six incumbents are not seeking reelection.
That list includes two representatives who are running for a different office 鈥� Democrat Matthew McQueen of Galisteo is running for land commissioner and Republican Martin Zamora of Clovis is running for Congress.
It also includes four lawmakers who are planning to step down at year鈥檚 end: Reps. Joanne Ferrary, D-Las Cruces, Jimmy Mason, R-Artesia, Susan Herrera, D-Embudo and Mark Murphy, R-Roswell.
Of the 64 incumbents seeking reelection, just 13 are facing primary challenges. Twelve of those are Democrats, as Rep. Joshua Hernandez of Rio Rancho is the lone Republican incumbent facing a primary opponent.
In all, just 16 of New Mexico鈥檚 70 state House seats feature contested primary races this year. And just one of those seats 鈥� the sa国际传媒官网网页入口-based House District 27 鈥� features competition on both the Democratic and Republican side.
Sanderoff said most House seats are currently 鈥渟afe鈥� for either Republicans or Democrats after the latest round of redistricting in 2021, leaving only a handful of true swing districts statewide.
鈥淧erhaps a bigger battleground now is playing out in the primaries, specifically the Democratic primary,鈥� Sanderoff said.
What's at stake
Democrats currently outnumber Republicans by a 44-26 margin in the state House, making it all but certain they will retain control of the chamber after the November general election.
But if more progressive candidates are successful in the primary election, that could increase the likelihood of certain bills being passed over the next two years, Sanderoff said.
Specifically, legislation dealing with climate change, paid family leave and prohibiting certain types of gun sales, which have all stalled at the Roundhouse over the last few years, could face better odds of approval.
Conversely, victories by more moderate Democrats could complicate progressives' agenda, which will also hinge largely on who wins this year's open race for governor.
Of course, there are other factors at play too, and winning the primary election is not a guarantee of success in November's general election.
But six of the 14 contested House primary races involving Democrats do not feature a Republican opponent, meaning the winners could face an easy stroll to victory this fall.
Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on X at @DanBoydNM or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.
