Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico's regular season finale against San Diego State
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Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico鈥檚 pivotal regular season finale against San Diego State:
1. Hold up on third down
San Diego State doesn鈥檛 have many true weaknesses. Consider that a credit to a big, talented roster and a reliable style of play that Jason Eck considers a throwback to his last season in college.
鈥淭hey remind you of a 1998 Big Ten team,鈥� UNM鈥檚 first-year head coach said Tuesday. 鈥淚 mean, that鈥檚 how we were at Wisconsin. They鈥檙e running the ball (65.43%) of the time (and) there鈥檚 not many teams like that anymore.
鈥淭here鈥檚 probably less than 10 teams in the country who have that kind of percentage 鈥� They鈥檙e probably one of the highest running percentage teams that there are, and they鈥檙e doing a great job. They鈥檙e playing great defense, great special teams.鈥�
They do, however, struggle with one thing: converting third downs. SDSU has converted 41 of 142 third downs faced (31.69%), far and away the worst mark in the 12-team Mountain West.
UNM hasn鈥檛 been a consistently great defensive team on third down; the Lobos鈥� have allowed teams to convert on 40.4% of third-down opportunities, good for 10th in the conference. But last week, UNM held Air Force 鈥� the best third down team in the league (48.55%) 鈥� over 10% below the Falcons鈥� season average.
A similar performance against the worst third down team in the league would go a long way toward allowing UNM to pull off one of the biggest wins in program history.
2. Find success with (and against) the run game
Eck has said UNM wants to win the rushing battle in every game, and when the Lobos have won convincingly 鈥� or won at all 鈥� that鈥檚 been the case.
It feels like much more of a necessity in this game, though. SDSU has the second-best rushing defense in the country (103.18 yards allowed per game) and has an effective 鈥� if not terribly explosive 鈥� rushing attack (187.64 yards per game) to complement it.
鈥淭hey (have) a lot different profile than a lot of teams in our league,鈥� Eck said. 鈥淚 think they wanna play ball control (offense), help their defense 鈥� So we got to find ways to consistently move the ball against them.鈥�
That starts with the run game. And if UNM can hold strong against SDSU鈥檚 rushing attack? That might just be enough to swing this one in the Lobos鈥� direction.
3. Get meaningful contributions from the seniors
For the first time in nearly 10 years, UNM鈥檚 senior class has a game to look forward to beyond Friday鈥檚 regular season finale. If enough things break their way, it might be two.
Is that something 鈥� the possibility of a near-mythical Mountain West Championship appearance 鈥� they鈥檙e thinking about?
鈥�(Let鈥檚) take care of the game in front of us,鈥� fifth-year defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby said Tuesday. 鈥淚鈥檓 a day-by-day kind of guy, man. If it all (works out) and we get the opportunity, let鈥檚 do it.鈥�
鈥淚f I said I (didn鈥檛 think about it), I鈥檇 be lying,鈥� fifth-year wide receiver Keagan Johnson said Tuesday.
Again: UNM doesn鈥檛 control its own destiny to reach the title game. Friday is not a win-and-in situation. But to a man, UNM鈥檚 seniors all agreed on one thing: Another win at University Stadium would go a long, long way toward that possibility and closing their Lobo careers on a high note.
In turn, a long completion to Johnson, against a talented SDSU secondary? A sack from James-Newby, against a massive Aztec offensive line?
Those things will add up if UNM is to come out on top over SDSU. Look out for what the Lobos鈥� key seniors do come Friday.
Prediction
Give me the team that鈥檚 5-0 at home over the team that鈥檚 3-2 on the road. New Mexico 17, San Diego State 13
