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SANTA FE 鈥� Ben Ray Luj谩n鈥檚 bid for reelection to the U.S. Senate seat he has held since 2020 is showing little signs of turbulence, a new Journal Poll found.

The Democratic incumbent holds a commanding lead over his primary election opponent Matt Dodson of Farmington, as the poll found 69% of voters surveyed supporting Luj谩n and just 9% saying they planned to vote for Dodson. The remaining voters were undecided.

Brian Sanderoff, the president of sa国际传媒官网网页入口-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll, said it is unusual for a sitting U.S. senator to draw opposition in a primary election; but said he does not believe that Dodson poses a serious threat.

The son of former New Mexico House Speaker Ben Luj谩n, who died in 2012, the younger Luj谩n, 53, has faced a challenging first term in the U.S. Senate.

He was hospitalized after in 2022, but eventually made a full recovery.

In addition, Luj谩n and New Mexico鈥檚 other U.S. senator, fellow Democrat Martin Heinrich, have found themselves in the minority since Republicans won control of the chamber in the 2024 election cycle.

However, Luj谩n鈥檚 seat is not considered to be a political toss-up this year, and the only Republican to initially file to run against him in February was disqualified from the ballot for failing to submit a sufficient amount of voter signatures.

Another Republican, Larry Marker of Roswell, subsequently filed to run as a write-in candidate.

Dodson, a self-described democratic socialist who has also run unsuccessfully for the state Legislature in past years, was a surprise primary election challenger to Luj谩n and has run an unconventional campaign.

He was arrested and jailed this month for protesting military drone use outside Holloman Air Force base near Alamogordo, and has also called out Luj谩n as a 鈥渃orporatist, establishment, incumbent 鈥楧emocrat鈥� with a legacy last name.鈥�

Drilling into poll findings

While Luj谩n led Dodson in all regions of New Mexico and among all ages groups surveyed, the incumbent had the highest support levels among older voters, Hispanics and those living in the state鈥檚 north central region, where he grew up.

Dodson had his highest support level 鈥� roughly 18% 鈥� among voters aged 18-34, many of whom might be more disenchanted with the current political system.

Sanderoff also pointed out that Dodson paradoxically performed better among Democratic and independent voters who self-identified as conservative.

Such voters might think of Luj谩n, who has voted against most of President Donald Trump鈥檚 appointees, as too liberal, without knowing of Dodson鈥檚 even more liberal policy views, Sanderoff said.

The Journal Poll was conducted in advance of New Mexico鈥檚 June 2 primary election, which is the first to be held under a semi-open primary system approved last year. Under the system, independent voters, or those who decline to select a political party, will be able to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary without having to change their affiliation.

Given that context, Luj谩n鈥檚 support in the Journal Poll was slightly higher among registered Democrats than it was among independents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary.

Among those independents surveyed, about 58% said they planned to vote for Luj谩n, while 36% were still undecided. The remaining 6% of independent voters said they planned to vote for Dodson.

Methodology

The Journal Poll was conducted from April 17 to April 24. It is based on a statewide random sample of 470 registered Democrats who cast ballots in the 2020, 2022, and/or 2024 Democratic primary elections, and a sample of Democrats who registered to vote since January 2025, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The poll also included 64 independent (or unaffiliated) voters with proven voter history, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Democratic Primary election.

The total sample is 534, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by education level, based on traditional voting patterns to ensure a more representative sample.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in sa国际传媒官网网页入口, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely primary election voters were used.

Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on X at or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.