NEWS
Journal Poll: Toulouse Oliver leads in lieutenant governor race; many undecided in other Dem primaries
Nominees for several statewide offices with term-limited incumbents to be decided in June primary election
SANTA FE 鈥 Many Democratic voters haven鈥檛 decided who to vote for in two contested primary races for statewide offices, but New Mexico鈥檚 outgoing secretary of state holds a big lead in the lieutenant governor contest, a new Journal Poll found.
The poll found 54% of voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Maggie Toulouse Oliver in the Democratic primary race for lieutenant governor. About 10% expressed support for her opponent, state Sen. Harold Pope Jr., D-sa国际传媒官网网页入口, while the remaining voters surveyed were undecided.
Brian Sanderoff, president of sa国际传媒官网网页入口-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll, said Touluose Oliver鈥檚 profile as a former Bernalillo County clerk and the state鈥檚 top election official since late 2016 is likely boosting her candidacy among Democratic voters.
鈥淣ame recognition plays an important role in these lower-profile races,鈥 Sanderoff said.
Toulouse Oliver also has received attention for her office鈥檚 legal fight against President Donald Trump鈥檚 administration, which has sued New Mexico and other states after being denied access to unredacted voter registration lists.
The poll results suggest it鈥檚 possible the Democratic Party could have an all-female ticket for this year鈥檚 race for governor, which would mark a historical first.
A recent Journal Poll found Deb Haaland, the former U.S. interior secretary under President Joe Biden, with a lead over Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in this year鈥檚 Democratic gubernatorial primary race.
While major party candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately in New Mexico鈥檚 primary election, the winners are lumped together as a ticket in the November general election under state law. Current Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Lt. Gov. Howie Morales, both Democrats, are term limited and will step down at the end of this year.
The Journal Poll found especially strong support for Toulouse Oliver among Democratic and independent voters who described themselves as having liberal or progressive views, while Pope fared better among self-described conservatives.
Pope, who was first elected to represent a West Side sa国际传媒官网网页入口 district in 2020, would become New Mexico鈥檚 first African American lieutenant governor if elected. He does not have to give up his Senate seat to run this year, however, as state Senate seats are not up for election until 2028.
While Pope might be a well-known figure at the Roundhouse, Sanderoff said, he is likely trailing in the lieutenant governor contest because he is not a household name on a statewide level like Toulouse Oliver.
Many undecideds in other statewide primary races
The Journal Poll found many voters are still undecided about who to vote for in contested Democratic primary races for two other statewide offices 鈥 secretary of state and land commissioner 鈥 featuring outgoing incumbents.
In the three-way land commissioner race, former state Democratic Party official Juan Sanchez has staked out a lead over his Democratic rivals, Matthew McQueen and Jonas Moya.
Sanchez, who has also worked as U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich鈥檚 political director, received the support of 20% of voters surveyed in the poll, compared to 11% for both McQueen and Moya. But more than half the voters surveyed 鈥 about 58% 鈥 said they were still undecided with early, in-person voting set to begin May 5.
Sanchez and Moya fared better among Hispanic voters surveyed, while McQueen, a six-term state representative from Galisteo, performed better among Anglo voters.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face off against Republican Michael Perry of Roswell in the November general election.
Meanwhile, the percentage of undecided voters was even higher in the secretary of state race, in which Democrats Katharine Clark and Amanda L贸pez Askin were in a virtual tie. Two-thirds of voters surveyed were still undecided.
Clark and L贸pez Askin are county clerks, of Santa Fe and Do帽a Ana counties, and fared better in the poll in the parts of the state they represent. For instance, Clark received 23% voter support in the state鈥檚 North Central region, which includes Santa Fe, compared to just 9% support in the region for L贸pez Askin.
鈥淭hey may have a strong following in their respective counties, but when it comes to statewide, they鈥檙e not as well known,鈥 Sanderoff said.
The primary race to be New Mexico鈥檚 next top election official has been a spirited one, with Clark disputing a complaint alleging she repeatedly violated state law as county clerk by releasing election results before polls closed.
The race previously featured a third candidate, former state Veterans Services Secretary Sonya Smith, but she narrowly missed qualifying for the ballot at the Democratic pre-primary convention in March. Smith was also inadvertently included in the Journal Poll but trailed behind Clark and L贸pez Askin.
The winner of the Democratic primary race for secretary of state will face Republican Ramona Goolsby of Rio Rancho in the general election.
Methodology
The Journal Poll was conducted from April 17 to April 24. It is based on a statewide random sample of 470 registered Democrats who cast ballots in the 2020, 2022, and/or 2024 Democratic primary elections, and a sample of Democrats who registered to vote since January 2025, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The poll also included 64 independent (or unaffiliated) voters with proven voter history, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Democratic primary election. Independent voters are now able to request either a Democratic or Republican ballot under a semi-open primary system that was signed into law last year.
The total sample is 534, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by education level, based on traditional voting patterns to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in sa国际传媒官网网页入口, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone.
Cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely primary election voters were used.
Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on Twitter at or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.
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