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Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima knows he鈥檚 a long shot candidate to be New Mexico鈥檚 next governor. 

But he鈥檚 done the math and sees a path to to the Governor鈥檚 Office, but only if the stars align exactly right, and he鈥檒l have to watch from the sidelines for the first part. 

Miyagishima participated in the Journal gubernatorial Town Hall series on Monday. He鈥檚 running as an independent, and is trying to market himself as the centrist. He said he would work to repeal the Immigrant Safety Act, which prohibits local governments in the state from partnering with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He said immigrant detention centers can bring crucial economic and job opportunities to rural towns. 

He said he 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 really like abortion鈥� but that the government shouldn鈥檛 get involved in regulating the practice, and he suggested that reforms are needed with rules for recreational cannabis sales to keep the shops and product away from schools and children.

After the forum, I asked him who he was going to vote for in the upcoming June 2 primary, and if the outcome of the Democrat and Republican races will affect his chances. 

Yes, they will. And he said there鈥檚 one crucial scenario that needs to happen. 

鈥淚 need Deb, Duke and me,鈥� Miyagashima said. 

That means his chances hinge on former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland defeating Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in the Democratic primary, and cannabis entrepreneur and hospital executive Duke Rodriguez beating out Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and small business entrepreneur Doug Turner on the Republican side. 

鈥淒eb, she鈥檚 just so hated,鈥� Miyagishima said. 鈥淒uke, he is just too controversial.鈥�

I agree with Miyagishima鈥檚 math. 

On the Democrat side, Bregman is the more moderate candidate. Since he was appointed district attorney in 2023, he鈥檚 lobbied to increase penalties for certain offenses and change pretrial detention rules to make it easier to keep suspects behind bars before trial.

Bregman has said the Democratic Party needs to have a big tent. He described himself as 鈥減ragmatic鈥� and a 鈥渃ommon sense Democrat.鈥�

"That may mean taking on some of the sacred cows of the activists in our party," he said on his campaign website.

Haaland, meanwhile, as a representative in Congress was a supporter of the Green New Deal, the Medicare for All Act and she called to abolish Immigration and Customs and Enforcement.

Take this latest point of contention on the Democratic side. Bregman recently criticized Haaland鈥檚 campaign for posting pictures of homes that Bregman owns in sa国际传媒官网网页入口, Angel Fire and Houston in an attempt to paint him as a rich elitist.

Criticizing your opponent for being professionally successful is why Miyagishima thinks he can beat Haaland in a general election. 

On the Republican side, Rodriguez is the candidate Miyagishima believes he can peel support from. Rodriguez has faced controversy for owning a home and living and voting in Arizona in recent years. He鈥檚 staved off legal challenges to remain on the ballot, but that coupled with his running the largest cannabis company in New Mexico might cost him some support with conservatives.

Meanwhile, Hull has name recognition from running Rio Rancho for the last 12 years and Turner is finding success fundraising. He is also adept at appealing to the different factions in his party. During his Journal Town Hall, Turner was asked if he was 鈥淢AGA鈥� and he demurred and said he鈥檚 more of an independent. But Turner is expected to speak at a fundraiser at President Donald Trump鈥檚 Mar-a-Lago in May.

So for Miyagishima, the key to his race will be the results of the elections that he鈥檚 not in. 

He said that if Rodriguez and Haaland prevail, he鈥檒l be able to peel 20% of Democrats away from Haaland and 10% of Republicans from Rodriguez. Then his campaign will work to get independents and decline-to-state voters to get to the polls in larger-than-usual numbers.

If all that happens and the stars align, Miyagishima said he will win with 34% of the vote in a three-way race. 

So he recognizes he鈥檚 a long shot, and there鈥檚 not much he can do to move the needle until the day after the primary. 

鈥淚 just need to make it to June 3,鈥� he said.

Ryan Boetel is the Opinion page editor at the Journal. He can be reached at rboetel@abqjournal.com and at 505-823-3960.